Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 35.415053 41.981276 49.214099 57.743495 67.496496 78.269559 91.037643
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 26.488393 35.352587 46.090599 59.927285 77.141908 97.702947 123.951312
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 20.722254 30.391527 43.008297 60.398781 83.427962 112.528915 151.677733
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.105237 25.702764 39.075035 58.610214 85.879610 121.985947 172.676257
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.332168 22.927686 37.084605 58.820455 90.535040 134.178916 197.618955
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.392997 20.978340 35.870620 59.767666 96.011086 147.574169 224.778945
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 8.779950 17.438879 31.675199 55.631456 93.485737 149.247680 235.338328
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.772859 16.409940 31.264724 57.210024 99.527236 163.541978 264.691491
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.582095 14.820416 29.671592 56.623906 102.022708 172.559801 286.622229
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.221324 14.731628 30.641765 60.374028 111.689843 193.032982 326.850117
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 4.985058 12.659827 27.743925 57.075066 109.379755 194.527416 337.817702
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.517384 12.106791 27.601793 58.644457 115.360695 209.516864 370.615460
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.118534 11.722546 27.914901 61.430057 124.292858 230.871844 416.479220
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.706506 11.239715 27.999673 63.871989 132.977012 252.651666 464.791133
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.194075 10.384597 27.161746 64.384303 138.149869 268.776954 504.655399
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.598670 9.148322 25.271246 62.497255 138.596805 276.663633 531.003866
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.234028 8.440612 24.453150 62.719426 143.047638 291.807121 570.482067
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.965288 7.936402 24.028448 63.719635 149.071252 310.084774 616.286911
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.491153 6.629483 21.363521 59.351079 143.812507 307.246570 624.495634
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.342610 6.357478 21.325110 61.018626 151.148246 328.339837 676.703198
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.131855 5.789624 20.380511 60.399515 153.556043 340.143828 712.480725
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.094142 5.867796 21.266084 64.359849 166.167317 372.340324 787.376962
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.848482 5.016697 19.287046 60.876076 162.064302 371.498065 800.430196